A new report on behalf of the Renewable Fuels Association shows California regulators overstate corn ethanol emissions from so-called indirect land use change by up to 400%. (DTN file photo)

LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) — As the California Air Resources Board is hosting a biofuels and indirect land use change forum on Thursday on the state’s low-carbon fuel standard, a new report prepared for the Renewable Fuels Association shows the state’s estimate associated with ethanol needs revision.

Penalizing corn ethanol for indirect land use change when calculating its carbon footprint, according to the 73-page report from LifeCycle Associates, has major implications for climate policy effectiveness, market fairness and the economic viability of the U.S. ethanol industry.

The report estimates the indirect land use change values on corn ethanol used in the low-carbon fuel standard are about a decade old and overstate emissions by 300% to 400%.

California last conducted an analysis of the issue in 2014 and 2015, when economic models were less refined for estimating land use change and limited historical data were available for the period when the Renewable Fuel Standard and California’s law had been in effect.

“The cumulative effect of methodological improvements has been a steady reduction in estimated GHG emissions from corn ethanol land use change, producing results that are more consistent with observed global market behavior,” according to the report from LifeCycle Associates, who examined new models.